A Short History of the Information Age

A Short History of the Information Age

We are immersed in information, bathed in bits. 

Information surrounds us, informs us, guides us, protects us.  Without it, life could not exist.  Without it, the universe could not exist—because the universe might very well be information

Despite the ubiquity of information, the Information Age, as we call it, is quite young, only about 80 years old.  Everyone alive today has spent most, or all, of their lives watching it unfold.  Only octogenarians or older have any hope of remembering what life was like before the revolution.

The Information Age is defined by the dominance of digital information across society, economics and culture.  Information in a more raw form has been guiding human society ever since the invention of language about 500,000 years ago.  The invention of writing gave it a material boost 5000 years ago, and Gutenberg accelerated the process 500 years ago. But the threshold to the Information Age was crossed in 1945 with the invention of the ENIAC, the first digital computer.  From that moment, the analog world began to slip away, replaced by bits. The global amount of stored digital information surpassed analog storage (books, phonographs, photographs, audio tapes) in 2002. 

It may be too early today to gain the distance needed for a frank assessment, but the first 40 years were the real go-go years, when most of the underlying technology was invented.  Here is a short history of those first forty years of the Information Age, beginning with ENIAC in 1945 through the invention of the World Wide Web in 1989.

The ENIAC, University of Pennsylvania (1945)

The Information Age and the Computer Age are nearly synonymous.  The chief function of information is control, and the chief mechanism by which one stream of information controls another is in a computer. 

Marlyn Wescoff (left) and Ruth Lichterman programming the ENIAC computer
Marlyn Wescoff (left) and Ruth Lichterman programming the ENIAC.

The first fully functional electronic computer was the ENIAC built at the University of Pennsylvania in 1945 by physicist John Mauchly and engineer J. Eckert in collaboration with John von Neumann.  The three invented the stored-program architecture that consisted of a central processing unit (CPU), a memory and input/output ports.  It weighed 27 tons and consumed 150 kWatts of electricity, but it was 10 times faster than mechanical calculators.

The Transistor, Bell Labs (1947)

In the years from WWII to the notorious breakup of AT&T by federal district court judge Harold Green in 1984, Bell Labs was the apex R&D lab in the world.  Even in 1988, when I arrived at Holmdel, NJ, to begin my post-doc position with Alastair Glass in the Optical Materials Department, it still retained the glow of its halcyon days.  Nothing was impossible, and research ran at a furious pace.

An image of the first transistor made from a Germanium semiconductor.
The first transistor.

The accelerating use of electronics during WWII had led to an intense research program to replace large, expensive, over-heating vacuum tubes with a compact solid-state device.  At Bell Labs, John Bardeen, Walter Brattain and William Shockley succeeded in controlling a current with a voltage in a transistor constructed of germanium in 1947.  The germanium was soon replaced by silicon that had superior properties, especially its oxide properties that enabled the operation of field effect transistors (FETs). 

Photo of Bardeen, Shockley and Brattain with the first transistor.
Bardeen, Schockley and Brattain with the first transistor.

Information Theory, Bell Labs (1948)

The Information Age would not be a recognized technological age of modern society without a theory to go with it.  This was provided by Claude Shannon of Bell Labs in 1948, who recognized that information was related to a concept that Ludwig Boltzmann had derived 70 years earlier—Entropy.  The equation chiseled into stone on Boltzmann’s memorial in Vienna, Austria, states simply that entropy is proportional to the logarithm of the probability of states.

Claude Shannon and the mathematical formula for information based on entropy

Shannon showed that information is a measure of “surprise”, meaning that is it the likelihood of observing something unexpected.  If there is no surprise in a message, like a string of ones “1111111 ..”, then the message carries no information.  It is only when the message is structured “1011000110010101” that it carries information to distinguish one bit from the next.  Information is greatest when the surprise is greatest, which is also the highest entropy.

This concept of information is un-intuitive, but it ends up explaining almost every aspect of the flow of information through any dynamical or complex system.  Physicists like John Wheeler of Princeton and Seth Lloyd of MIT went so far as to claim that the physics of reality is in reality the physics of information.

Magnetic Hard Disk Drive, IBM (1953)

When I first learned to run computer programs on a mainframe computer at Cornell University in 1978, the first step in the process was converting my computer code into punched IBM cards that were fed into a mechanical reader.  Even then, it was a hold-over from a by-gone age when all computer memory was mechanical, either in the form of punched cards or magnetic tape.

Photo of the first IBM hard drive system
The RAMAC 350 by IBM.

That all changed with the IBM 350 Disk Storage Unit that used spinning magnetic disks and a read head that floated on a cushion of air just a few mils above the disk surface.  This was the first commercial hard drive, invented at the IBM San Jose research facility in 1953 by Reynold Johnson, a former high-school teacher who had a knack for invention.  The key feature of the hard drive was its ability to provide random-access to stored information.  The unit was bigger than a refrigerator and weighed a ton while only having a storage capacity of 5 MB.  But the tech has scaled well, and today 8 TB hard drives the size of a pocket book are commonplace.

Integrated Circuit, Texas Instruments (1958)

The invention of the integrated circuit was a pivotal moment that launched electronic miniaturization, ushering in increasingly complex function into increasingly smaller packages.  The miniaturization trend has been going strong for 60 years and continues today.

Photo of Jack Kilby's first integrated circuit.
First integrated circuit by Jack Kilby of Texas Instruments.

The integrated circuit solved the problem of spaghetti wiring needed to wire transistors together with capacitors and resistors on circuit boards.  By integrating the construction of wires, transistors, capacitors and resistors onto a semiconductor chip, all the mess is removed and each of the elements can be reduced in size.

The integrated circuit was invented by Jack Kilby of Texas Instruments.  Shortly after joining the company, he was stranded while others were away on vacation (he had not accrued any vacation time yet), so he thought of the idea of integrating the different circuit elements onto a single chip.  He built the first demo out of a chip of germanium. 

The Laser, Hughes Research Lab (1960)

Ted Maiman, the inventor of the laser, was a wanderer.  When given the opportunity to work with a Nobel prize winner at Stanford, he instead used his life savings to take a trip around the world.  Settling back into research life after his trip, he got a job at Hughes Research Lab, the research arm of the Hughes Corporation founded by the eccentric Howard Hughes. 

His first job at the lab was to improve on the ruby maser (micro-wave amplification by stimulated emission) but he wandered off track and began pursuing light emission—the so-called optical maser.  The common wisdom was that ruby would not lase, and Ali Javan at Bell Labs was close to completing the first HeNe laser.  Yet Maiman tried anyway by wrapping an intense flash tube around a rod of ruby with polished mirror faces.  On May16, 1960, he and his technician, Irnee D’Haenens, slowly increased the voltage to the flash tube until the room suddenly glowed red when the rod emitted red laser radiation.  D’Haenens was color blind and could not normally see red, but the laser light was so bright that even the few red receptors in his eyes picked up the light.  He saw the color red for the first time in his life! (Read more about the discovery of the laser in Chapter 8 of Interference (Oxford University Press (2023)).

T-Carrier, Bell Labs (1962)

Information does little good if it cannot be transmitted from place to place.  In 1962, engineers at Bell Labs introduced the T-carrier, a method to transmit digital information over simple twisted-pair copper wires.  The master stroke of this invention is that it took the standard wire that was designed for a single analog phone conversation and sent 24 simultaneous conversations in digital form down the same wire.  By the early 1960’s the US had nearly 400 million miles of twisted pair laid down that would have cost a fortune to replace, but the Bell engineers “repurposed” it, extending the capacity by multiplexing, eventually pushing the multiplex level up to 96 simultaneous conversations.  One of the engineers responsible for this technological advance was John Mayo, who became the seventh president of Bell Labs in 1991.

Moore’s Law, Fairchild Semiconductor (1965)

In 1965 Gordon Moore, the director of research at Fairchild Semiconductor in San Jose, California, was asked to contribute a short opinion piece to a special issue of an electronics magazine.  In the article he noted that the complexity of integrated silicon circuits was doubling about every year, and he projected that the trend would continue for the next ten years.  He revisited his prediction in 1975, noting that the trend would likely continue until 1980, after which it would adjust to a doubling every two years into the foreseeable future.  His prediction was essentially correct, and “Moore’s Law” has been on track for over half a century.  Numerous other technologies are now following their own form of Moore’s Law.

Fiber Optics, Standard Communications Laboratory, UK (1966)

In the early days of fiber optic research, shortly after 1960, scientists could not send light a hundred meters without losing nearly all of the intensity. The first breakthrough came in 1966 with the suggestion by Charles Kao, working a the Standard Communications Laboratory in England that a light-guiding core of high-density glass could be surrounded with an outer cladding of lower density glass. The lower-density cladding still allowed total internal reflection, while shielding the guided light from the rough surface of the fiber. This clad fiber solved one of the impediments to getting light to travel long distances, but there was still the problem of absorption by impurities in glass.

The second breakthrough came in 1970 when researchers at Corning Glass showed that, by using a special fabrication technique called chemical vapor deposition (CVD), the fibers could be made so pure that the absorption was minimized. They showed that light intensity in the fiber would drop only 99 percent over one kilometer. Though this sounds like a big drop in intensity, it was a critical threshold toward which everyone had been working. With this degree of transparency, a fiber system could have a repeater (a photodetector that receives the signal, and a laser that relaunches it down the next segment of fiber) spaced as far as 1 – 2 km apart. This was a magic number because it was the same repeat distance that was being used by electronic transmission. If it was good enough for telephone wires, it should be good enough for fibers. (Read more about the discovery of fiber optics in Chapter 6 of Mind at Light Speed (Free Press (2001))

SRAM Memory, RCA Laboratories (1968)

Core computer memory prior to 1965 was based on small magnetic ferrite rings threaded by small wires.  The devices were large and slow (by modern standards) and maxed out at about 8 MB.  Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) circuits would eventually replace core memory, but they had a modest start.  CMOS technology was invented at Fairchild Semiconductor in 1965 and was rapidly developed into TTL circuits as well as static RAM, but the capacity was initially only 288 bits.  RCA Laboratories integrated the CMOS into circuits that provided a long runway for scaling.  Today SRAM chips easily hold 64 MB of information while SRAM in CPU cores reach several GB.

CCD, Bell Labs (1969)

Light is one of the most ubiquitous and most information-rich probes of the world around us.  Although light moves in three dimensions, a two-dimensional cross section of light paths captures the essential information content.  Therefore, cameras are the quintessential collectors of information carried by light, and digital cameras are the front end to any downstream image processing using computers and telecommunications.

The charge-coupled device (CCD) was the breakthrough digital imaging technology of the Information Age, launching the revolution in commercial, industrial, scientific and personal imaging.  The CCD was invented at Bell Labs in 1969 by George Smith and Willard Boyle (who received the Nobel Prize in Physics for the invention in 2009) when they realized that MOS technology in silicon could transfer “buckets” (they called them “bubbles’) of electrons from one capacitor to an adjacent one on the chip, creating a “bucket brigade” of electrons along linear chains of capacitors.  The application of CCD technology specifically for imaging was demonstrate the next year in 1970.

Compact Disc, Pillips Corp. (1969)

The wavelength of light is about one micron (a millionth of a meter), so the storage of information on an optical disk has an ultra-high density of about 1 bit per square micron.  The first technology to try to access this data density was the compact disk of Klaas Compaan and later Kees Immink at Phillips Corporation.  CDs eventually reached a storage of 700 MB of data.  They were cheap to manufacture (pennies per disk) and easy to distribute (jewel cases) and replaced previous magnetic tape as the chief storage medium for music.  This was followed by DVDs with 5 GB for movies and later BluRay (shorter wavelength and multiple layers) in the early 2000’s with a storage of 25 GB of data.

(As a personal aside, in the late 90’s, Marty Becker, a colleague of mine at Purdue, came into my office one day and asked my why CD’s reflected rainbow colors.  I didn’t know, but when I looked into it, I was amazed to find that the surface of a CD consisted of a billion little pits that each were a tiny optical interferometer.  (Optical interferometers are the most sensitive measurement system mankind has ever devised, capable of detecting the merger of two black holes from half a universe away.). This had been the brainchild of Klass Compaan and Piet Kramer of the Phillips Corporation in the Netherlands. 

About a year after I had talked with Marty, I was asked by Fred Regnier, another colleague at Purdue, how a physicist might measure thousands of different proteins to help the new field of proteomics.  I immediately thought of Compaan’s billion little interferometers and suggested that the little pits could be used like a billion little test tubes and use light to measure the protein reactions.  This was the origin of the BioCD, which went on to commercial success in the canine blood diagnostics market between 2010 and 2020.)

Intel 4004, Intel (1971)

Transistors had already revolutionized circuit board electronics, but these were still bulky and expensive to fabricate.  A major technological breakthrough came with the integration of multiple transistors on a chip, and multiple chips in a package, creating significant computing power in the size of about 1 centimeter.  This was achieved by Intel with the release of the Intel 4004 microprocessor in 1971.  The fabrication was intrinsically scalable, putting successively more transistors onto chips, driving Moore’s Law for many decades.

Altair 8800, MITS (1975)

By combining microprocessor chips with memory and a user interface, the first personal computers came out as DIY electronics kits.  The first was the Altair 8800 released by MITS in 1975 as a hobbyist kit used for the first rudimentary computer games.

Apple II, Apple Corporation (1977)

Kits are fine for hobbyists, but personal computers could not penetrate mass markets until they became “appliances”.  This was achieved by Steve Wozniak and Steve Jobs at Apple in 1977 with the release of the Apple II that came with the VisiCalc program, the first spread-sheet application that saw widespread utility, known as a “killer app”.  The Commodore 64 microcomputer and the RadioShack TRS-80 were also early entries into the personal computer market.

Steve Wozniak and Steve Jobs in 1976. Link.

Cell Phone, Motorola (1983)

The invention of the cell phone affected everyone by ushering in 24-7 with a vengeance. With the cell phone, no one is ever unavailable or out of touch or lost. It connected individuals into dense human networks.

The first cell phone call was made in 1973 by Martin Cooper of Motorola to his competitor at AT&T. It took another 10 years to settle all the regulatory issues and to build the first cell network before the Motorola DynaTAC 8000X was released to the public in 1983 operating on an AT&T network.

Photon of Martin Cooper holding the DynaTac 8000X along with a modern cell phone.
Martin Cooper holding the DynaTac 8000X along with a modern cell phone.

Handwriting Recognition, Bell Labs (1988)

When I joined Bell Labs in 1988, new employees were treated to a grand introduction to Bell Labs research by the president Arno Penzius, who had won the Nobel Prize in physics in 1978 for discovering the microwave background of the Big Bang.  We also were given tours of select labs where significant advances were being made.  One lab I visited was the handwriting recognition lab at Holmdel, NJ, where Yann LeCun was revolutionizing the recognition of handwritten numbers.

The MNIST data set
MNIST Number Set.

LeCun had joined Bell Labs the same year I did, coming from a post-doc with Geoff Hinton at Toronto where he had studied neural networks.  At Bell Labs, LeCun developed the convolutional neural network (CNN) to replace the fully connected layers of neurons that had routinely been used in previous networks.  The CNN, by using expanding fields of attention, required far fewer neural weights to train.  That year, the Bell Labs team tried out the new neural network architecture on scans of thousands of handwritten numbers provided by the US Postal Service from their facility in Buffalo, NY.  LeCun went on to become one of the leading figures in the AI revolution.

World Wide Web (1989)

The World Wide Web was invented by English computer scientist Tim Berners-Lee in March 1989 while working at CERN (the European Organization for Nuclear Research). Five years later, in a faculty meeting in the Physics Department at Purdue University, I was introduced to this new thing called the “World Wide Web” by an Physics IT staff. They told us we would need to learn how to use it because it would change how we did our jobs. None of us believed him—but teaching at the university today is almost unrecognizable to what it was in the early 90’s. And the same with daily life. The WWW changed everything from how we shop to how we read to how we communicate. It is the information conduit of the Information Age.

The first diagram of the internet by Berners'Lee
Berners-Lee’s diagram in his 1989 proposal for the web. Link.

Epilog

The Information Age proper began 80 years ago (although information has been with us since the start of the universe in the Big Bang). This short history has covered the first 40 years, so only about half of the period. Since 1989, the inventions of the first 40 years have matured and evolved, but are still mostly recognizable. Cell phones are still cell phones, just smaller and smarter. The internet now consumes our attention, but it uses the same hypertext technology as the first network at CERN.

But one thing has evolved that is about to remake human society—AI. It likely will change life in such radical ways that it will mark a discontinuity in human history. Born of the Information Age, AI may close that door and usher in a new Cognitive Age. How humans will participate in the new Age is an open question.

Twenty Years at Light Speed: Fiber Optics and the Future of the Photonic Internet

Twenty years ago this November, my book Mind at Light Speed: A New Kind of Intelligence was published by The Free Press (Simon & Schuster, 2001).  The book described the state of optical science at the turn of the Millennium through three generations of Machines of Light:  The Optoelectronic Generation of electronic control meshed with photonic communication; The All-Optical Generation of optical logic; and The Quantum Optical Generation of quantum communication and computing.

To mark the occasion of the publication, this Blog Post begins a three-part series that updates the state-of-the-art of optical technology, looking at the advances in optical science and technology over the past 20 years since the publication of Mind at Light Speed.  This first blog reviews fiber optics and the photonic internet.  The second blog reviews all-optical communication and computing.  The third and final blog reviews the current state of photonic quantum communication and computing.

The Wabash Yacht Club

During late 1999 and early 2000, while I was writing Mind at Light Speed, my wife Laura and I would often have lunch at the ironically-named Wabash Yacht Club.  Not only was it not a Yacht Club, but it was a dark and dingy college-town bar located in a drab 70-‘s era plaza in West Lafayette, Indiana, far from any navigable body of water.  But it had a great garlic burger and we loved the atmosphere.

The Wabash River. No yachts. (https://www.riverlorian.com/wabash-river)

One of the TV monitors in the bar was always tuned to a station that covered stock news, and almost every day we would watch the NASDAQ rise 100 points just over lunch.  This was the time of the great dot-com stock-market bubble—one of the greatest speculative bubbles in the history of world economics.  In the second quarter of 2000, total US venture capital investments exceeded $30B as everyone chased the revolution in consumer market economics.

Fiber optics will remain the core technology of the internet for the foreseeable future.

Part of that dot-com bubble was a massive bubble in optical technology companies, because everyone knew that the dot-com era would ride on the back of fiber optics telecommunications.  Fiber optics at that time had already revolutionized transatlantic telecommunications, and there seemed to be no obstacle for it to do the same land-side with fiber optics to every home bringing every dot-com product to every house and every movie ever made.  What would make this possible was the tremendous information bandwidth that can be crammed into tiny glass fibers in the form of photon packets traveling at the speed of light.

Doing optics research at that time was a heady experience.  My research on real-time optical holography was only on the fringe of optical communications, but at the CLEO conference on lasers and electro-optics, I was invited by tiny optics companies to giant parties, like a fully-catered sunset cruise on a schooner sailing Baltimore’s inner harbor.  Venture capital scouts took me to dinner in San Francisco with an eye to scoop up whatever patents I could dream of.  And this was just the side show.  At the flagship fiber-optics conference, the Optical Fiber Conference (OFC) of the OSA, things were even crazier.  One tiny company that made a simple optical switch went almost overnight from a company worth a couple of million to being bought out by Nortel (the giant Canadian telecommunications conglomerate of the day) for over 4 billion dollars.

The Telecom Bubble and Bust

On the other side from the small mom-and-pop optics companies were the giants like Corning (who made the glass for the glass fiber optics) and Nortel.  At the height of the telecom bubble in September 2000, Nortel had a capitalization of almost $400B Canadian dollars due to massive speculation about the markets around fiber-optic networks.

One of the central questions of the optics bubble of Y2K was what the new internet market would look like.  Back then, fiber was only beginning to connect to distribution nodes that were connected off the main cross-country trunk lines.  Cable TV dominated the market with fixed programming where you had to watch whatever they transmitted whenever they transmitted it.  Google was only 2 years old, and Youtube didn’t even exist then—it was founded in 2005.  Everyone still shopped at malls, while Amazon had only gone public three years before.

There were fortune tellers who predicted that fiber-to-the-home would tap a vast market of online commerce where you could buy anything you wanted and have it delivered to your door.  They foretold of movies-on-demand, where anyone could stream any movie they wanted at any time.  They also foretold of phone calls and video chats that never went over the phone lines ruled by the telephone monopolies.  The bandwidth, the data rates, that these markets would drive were astronomical.  The only technology at that time that could support such high data rates was fiber optics.

At first, these fortune tellers drove an irrational exuberance.  But as the stocks inflated, there were doomsayers who pointed out that the costs at that time of bringing fiber into homes was prohibitive. And the idea that people would be willing to pay for movies-on-demand was laughable.  The cost of the equipment and the installation just didn’t match what then seemed to be a sparse market demand.  Furthermore, the fiber technology in the year 2000 couldn’t even get to the kind of data rates that could support these dreams.

In March of 2000 the NASDAQ hit a high of 5000, and then the bottom fell out.

By November 2001 the NASDAQ had fallen to 1500.  One of the worst cases of the telecom bust was Nortel whose capitalization plummeted from $400B at its high to $5B Canadian by August 2002.  Other optics companies fared little better.

The main questions, as we stand now looking back from 20 years in the future, are: What in real life motivated the optics bubble of 2000?  And how far has optical technology come since then?  The surprising answer is that the promise of optics in 2000 was not wrong—the time scale was just off. 

Fiber to the Home

Today, fixed last-mile broadband service is an assumed part of life in metro areas in the US.  This broadband takes on three forms: legacy coaxial cable, 4G wireless soon to be upgraded to 5G, and fiber optics.  There are arguments pro and con for each of these technologies, especially moving forward 10 or 20 years or more, and a lot is at stake.  The global market revenue was $108 Billion in 2020 and is expected to reach $200 Billion in 2027, growing at over 9% from 2021 to 2027.

(ShutterStock_75369058.jpg)

To sort through the pros and cons to pick the wining technology, several key performance parameters must be understood for each technology.  The two most important performance measures are bandwidth and latency.  Bandwidth is the data rate—how many bits per second can you get to the home.  Latency is a little more subtle.  It is the time it takes to complete a transmission.  This time includes the actual time for information to travel from a transmitter to a receiver, but that is rarely the major contributor.  Currently, almost all of the latency is caused by the logical operations needed to move the information onto and off of the home data links. 

Coax (short for coaxial cable) is attractive because so much of the last-mile legacy hardware is based on the old cable services.  But coax cable has very limited bandwidth and high latency. As a broadband technology, it is slowly disappearing.

Wireless is attractive because the information is transmitted in the open air without any need for physical wires or fibers.  But high data rates require high frequency.  For instance, 4G wireless operates at frequencies between 700 MHz to 2.6 GHz.  Current WiFi is 2.4 GHz or 5 GHz, and next-generation 5G will have 26 GHz using millimeter wave technology, and WiGig is even more extreme at 60 GHz.  While WiGig will deliver up to 10 Gbits per second, as everyone with wireless routers in their homes knows, the higher the frequency, the more it is blocked by walls or other obstacles.  Even 5 GHz is mostly attenuated by walls, and the attenuation gets worse as the frequency gets higher.  Testing of 5G networks has shown that cell towers need to be closely spaced to allow seamless coverage.  And the crazy high frequency of WiGig all but guarantees that it will only be usable for line-of-sight communication within a home or in an enterprise setting. 

Fiber for the last mile, on the other hand, has multiple advantages.  Chief among these is that fiber is passive.  It is a light pipe that has ten thousand times more usable bandwidth than a coaxial cable.  For instance, lab tests have pushed up to 100 Tbit/sec over kilometers of fiber.  To access that bandwidth, the input and output hardware can be continually upgraded, while the installed fiber is there to handle pretty much any amount of increasing data rates for the next 10 or 20 years.  Fiber installed today is supporting 1 Gbit/sec data rates, and the existing protocol will work up to 10 Gbit/sec—data rates that can only be hoped for with WiFi.  Furthermore, optical communications on fiber have latencies of around 1.5 msec over 20 kilometers compared with 4G LTE that has a latency of 8 msec over 1 mile.  The much lower latency is key to support activities that cannot stand much delay, such as voice over IP, video chat, remote controlled robots, and virtual reality (i.e., gaming).  On top of all of that, the internet technology up to the last mile is already almost all optical.  So fiber just extends the current architecture across the last mile.

Therefore, fixed fiber last-mile broadband service is a technology winner.  Though the costs can be higher than for WiFi or coax in the short run for installation, the long-run costs are lower when amortized over the lifetime of the installed fiber which can exceed 25 years.

It is becoming routine to have fiber-to-the-curb (FTTC) where a connection box converts photons in fibers into electrons on copper to take the information into the home.  But a market also exists in urban settings for fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) where the fiber goes directly into the house to a receiver and only then would the information be converted from photons to electrons and electronics.

Shortly after Mind at Light Speed was published in 2001, I was called up by a reporter for the Seattle Times who wanted to know my thoughts about FTTH.  When I extolled its virtue, he nearly hung up on me.  He was in the middle of debunking the telecom bubble and his premise was that FTTH was a fraud.  In 2001 he might have been right.  But in 2021, FTTH is here, it is expanding, and it will continue to do so for at least another quarter century.  Fiber to the home will become the legacy that some future disruptive technology will need to displace.

Fig. 1 Optical data rates on optical links, trunk lines and submarine cables over the past 30 years and projecting into the future. Redrawn from Refs. [1, 2]

Trunk-Line Fiber Optics

Despite the rosy picture for Fiber to the Home, a storm is brewing for the optical trunk lines.  The total traffic on the internet topped a billion Terrabytes in 2019 and is growing fast, doubling about every 2 years on an exponential growth curve.  In 20 years, that becomes another factor of a thousand more traffic in 2040 than today.  Therefore, the technology companies that manage and supply the internet worry about a capacity crunch that is fast approaching when there will be more demand than the internet can supply.

Over the past 20 years, the data rates on the fiber trunk lines—the major communication links that span the United States—matched demand by packing more bits in more ways into the fibers.  Up to 2009, increased data rates were achieved using dispersion-managed wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) which means that they kept adding more lasers of slightly different colors to send the optical bits down the fiber.  For instance, in 2009 the commercial standard was 80 colors each running at 40 Gbit/sec for a total of 3.2 Tbit/sec down a single fiber. 

Since 2009, increased bandwidth has been achieved through coherent WDM, where not only the amplitude of light but also the phase of the light is used to encode bits of information using interferometry.  We are still in the coherent WDM era as improved signal processing is helping to fill the potential coherent bandwidth of a fiber.  Commercial protocols using phase-shift keying, quadrature phase-shift keying, and 16-quadrature amplitude modulation currently support 50 Gbit/sec, 100 Gbit/sec and 200 Gbit/sec, respectively.  But the capacity remaining is shrinking, and several years from now, a new era will need to begin in order to keep up with demand.  But if fibers are already using time, color, polarization and phase to carry information, what is left? 

The answer is space!

Coming soon will be commercial fiber trunk lines that use space-division multiplexing (SDM).  The simplest form is already happening now as fiber bundles are replacing single-mode fibers.  If you double the number of fibers in a cable, then you double the data rate of the cable.  But the problem with this simple approach is the scaling.  If you double just 10 times, then you need 1024 fibers in a single cable—each fiber needing its own hardware to launch the data and retrieve it at the other end.  This is linear scaling, which is bad scaling for commercial endeavors. 

Fig. 2 Fiber structures for space-division multiplexing (SDM). Fiber bundles are cables of individual single-mode fibers. Multi-element fibers (MEF) are single-mode fibers formed together inside the coating. Multi-core fibers (MCF) have multiple cores within the cladding. Few-mode fibers (FMF) are multi-mode fibers with small mode numbers. Coupled core (CC) fibers are multi-core fibers in which the cores are close enough that the light waves are coupled into coupled spatial modes. Redrawn from Ref. [3]

Therefore, alternatives for tapping into SDM are being explored in lab demonstrations now that have sublinear scaling (costs don’t rise as fast as improved capacity).  These include multi-element fibers where multiple fiber optical elements are manufactured as a group rather than individually and then combined into a cable.  There are also multi-core fibers, where multiple fibers share the same cladding.  These approaches provide multiple fibers for multiple channels without a proportional rise in cost.

More exciting are approaches that use few-mode-fibers (FMF) to support multiple spatial modes traveling simultaneously down the same fiber.  In the same vein are coupled-core fibers which is a middle ground between multi-core fibers and few-mode fibers in that individual cores can interact within the cladding to support coupled spatial modes that can encode separate spatial channels.  Finally, combinations of approaches can use multiple formats.  For instance, a recent experiment combined FMF and MCF that used 19 cores each supporting 6 spatial modes for a total of 114 spatial channels.

However, space-division multiplexing has been under development for several years now, yet it has not fully moved into commercial systems. This may be a sign that the doubling rate of bandwidth may be starting to slow down, just as Moore’s Law slowed down for electronic chips.  But there were doomsayers foretelling the end of Moore’s Law for decades before it actually slowed down, because new ideas cannot be predicted. But even if the full capacity of fiber is being approached, there is certainly nothing that will replace fiber with any better bandwidth.  So fiber optics will remain the core technology of the internet for the foreseeable future. 

But what of the other generations of Machines of Light: the all-optical and the quantum-optical generations?  How have optics and photonics fared in those fields?  Stay tuned for my next blogs to find out.

By David D. Nolte, Nov. 8, 2021

Bibliography

[1] P. J. Winzer, D. T. Neilson, and A. R. Chraplyvy, “Fiber-optic transmission and networking: the previous 20 and the next 20 years,” Optics Express, vol. 26, no. 18, pp. 24190-24239, Sep (2018) [Link]

[2] W. Shi, Y. Tian, and A. Gervais, “Scaling capacity of fiber-optic transmission systems via silicon photonics,” Nanophotonics, vol. 9, no. 16, pp. 4629-4663, Nov (2020)

[3] E. Agrell, M. Karlsson, A. R. Chraplyvy, D. J. Richardson, P. M. Krummrich, P. Winzer, K. Roberts, J. K. Fischer, S. J. Savory, B. J. Eggleton, M. Secondini, F. R. Kschischang, A. Lord, J. Prat, I. Tomkos, J. E. Bowers, S. Srinivasan, M. Brandt-Pearce, and N. Gisin, “Roadmap of optical communications,” Journal of Optics, vol. 18, no. 6, p. 063002, 2016/05/04 (2016) [Link]